By: Fistum Getachew
As we move ahead towards the 7th general elections, reports say that everything is ready for the polls, as confirmed by the National Election Board. Candidates have been fervently active during the past weeks and months, trying to drive home their policies on their political platform prepared for the elections. There have also been various debates among politicians regarding their respective policies. After a reportedly low-key beginning of the election season during the last few weeks, the operation has gained momentum, and most of the mass media have been actively engaged in reporting what could be considered new developments pertaining to the election campaign, the way rallies have been taking place, and what programs are being held to involve potential electors.
Regarding the ruling party, there have been fervent activities that best demonstrate what it is doing and what it intends to do in the country during the coming years if confirmed in office. Naturally all indications show that the incumbent is still the favorite to continue to administer the country due to various reasons. First of all, the opposition have little unity because they are scattered and fragmented. Each of them has their own positions, but there may be little substantial or fundamental difference even if they all share their disapproval and opposition to the incumbent.
In the meantime, many argue, how can they hope to drive out of office the incumbent if they do not even have some form of unity, albeit even for the sake of a positive result at the polls? In the past we have seen several times that the opposition in Ethiopia has always been fragmented, and the only time that they were united and struggled together, they managed to present a huge challenge to the EPRDF coalition. In fact, they were almost on the verge of inflicting a huge defeat on the incumbent. But even then their unity loosened, and eventually they got disintegrated to the solace of the government in power. That was in 2005.
Today, after twenty-one years, we are again back to square one. We have heard many people argue that the political consciousness and maturity of Ethiopians have increased, taking lessons from past mistakes and negative experiences. However, there are no indications that such progress has been recorded. In fact, the fragmentation among rivals of the incumbent has continued, much to the presumable delight of the supporters of the same. It is good to note here, however, that democracy is better served or even flourishes preferably with a reasonable opposition force committed to working for the country and not to serve as a ‘Trojan horse for enemies of the state,' as is often noticed.
In any case, the incumbent does not seem to be frightened by the kind of opposition that it may face on June 1, 2026. There is a lot of confidence among government circles that the Prosperity Party is bound to win the elections not by small margins but by a landslide. Some even expect that the result could be a full and unconditional mandate to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) and company for another five years. Some have even gone to the extent of labeling the election as a ‘mere formality’ or a ‘rubber stamp’ for the incumbent because they argue that the opposition has little to present to electors that can convince them to reject the ruling party’s programs and the achievements it has realized.
There are various clear and obvious reasons that come to the minds of electors why they have little alternative but to elect the incumbent even in the face of several economic hardships. In fact, ever since the ‘reformist government’ came to power, it has been embarking on new programs and projects besides finishing those that were initiated by the former government but did not reach completion. As a matter of fact, one of the major weaknesses of the EPRDF government was its failure to complete the projects it initiates or fulfill the promises it makes, leaving the public disappointed.
On the other hand, one of the strengths of the incumbent has been delivering on what it promises and adhering to its words. We have heard many times the premier stating that his government always sticks to its promises and never tries to lure the population with unrealizable dreams and then end up disappointing them. In this sense the reformist government has many cards to play even in the face of mounting international geopolitical challenges.
Today the biggest challenge this government is faced with is the quest for access to the sea and expanding the influence of Ethiopia aimed at securing it the fame and name it once enjoyed in international circles and not being taken as the source of constant battles and violence among its people.
When projects are launched just for the sake of creating high expectations among the population, it is then that many times resources are squandered, there are more chances of abusing the funds, and it becomes easier to channel a lot of money, alleging that there have been increases in costs and other reasons that contribute to the delay of the completion of the project. What is more, as many of the projects have been initiated without serious feasibility studies or what actual gains the people might acquire, they are destined to fail or not meet the expectations or anticipations of the public. We have often come across news that informed us that such and such project has not been completed due to this or that problem. Very often, we have heard of a lack of sufficient funds due to the rise of costs and, hence, the problem resulting in a delay at times for years. We have in fact seen many projects even being abandoned totally due to insurmountable problems related to shortages of funds.
In a landscape where there are not strong opposition parties as well as a strong and independent media that would challenge the government in all its activities, it is easy for any government to launch any project even without making careful consideration of its feasibility and whether it is a real need for the population at that specific moment. It is typical of undemocratic governments to engage in any program they think will contribute to raising their image among the people without fearing any challenges of transparency or accountability. This is so because in the end it is the people’s money and resources that are at stake. Whenever there are huge projects that involve millions of dollars that come from the coffers of the state or are brought about from foreign loans or concessions, it is easy to engage in graft where all those involved in the projects may claim 'their fair share’ of the spoils.
Without strict supervision and control, it is easy to squander public funds, and very often lots of projects have the tendency to take more resources and more time than planned. As the cost of living rises due to inflation, the earmarked budget often needs to be modified to complete the work. We have seen in the past that many times projects have remained unfinished, resulting in major losses, and the public remains without securing the much-anticipated benefits or facilities. For years we have seen several projects that have been dropped or not completed, such as the famous sugar projects, the oil production projects, and even railroads and highway construction projects that were intended to benefit the population by filling the existing scarcities.
In the meantime, the country is required to pay its debts, which in many instances involve commercial loans with high interest rates. The loss, hence, has been double because the benefits of the projects have not been realized and, at the same time, the payments are due and the state is forced to pay them in hard currency. A glaring example of such a project was the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which was originally scheduled to end in five to seven years but in the end had to take fourteen years with the cost almost doubling.
A lot has been said about the entire process of the construction; the mistakes made due to the ineptitude of one of the companies that was involved in the technical parts of the dam, particularly the electrical part; and the delays suffered due to various issues such as security issues and diplomatic rows with downstream countries that were totally opposed to the project. However, in the end, the project has seen the light of day, showcasing to the world that Ethiopia is capable of completing certain huge and challenging projects despite all the adversities.
In this regard, while the launching of the project could be given as a credit for the EPRDF government, it was, however, finally the reformist government of the Prosperity Party that materialized the project to see daylight. It should be noted that this achievement was realized fighting against geopolitical challenges the Ethiopian government had to face, overcoming security and safety issues and filling the financial gaps that were critical for the completion of the project. After the successful realization of the GERD, it was hailed as another big victory, such as the famous victory of Adwa, which changed the course of history. In fact, the GERD is supposed to be a ‘game changer’ in the socioeconomic dynamics of Ethiopia and beyond. Experts have said that the realization of the GERD will contribute heavily to the industrialization of the country as it will fill all the scarcities of power.
To sum up, some may argue that there has not been seen a lot of excitement in relation to the upcoming election; there is, nevertheless, the expectation that the result will be symptomatic of how much approval this government will get, being judged by those who cast their votes. Observers hope that the state of democracy will be gauged by how the elections are conducted and under what circumstances. It is clear that Ethiopians would like to see democracy flourish in their backyards without some foreign entity trying to lecture them or their government how to do it and why. Ethiopians know that it is only through democracy that their country can have a bright future, and hopefully this could be a good beginning. Ethiopian authorities have said that this 7th general election will definitely be better than the sixth one carried out four years ago.
