Egypt has no legal right to prevent Ethiopia from securing a sea outlet, according to former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy, who stated that if Ethiopia can make its ongoing national dialogue effective, achieve genuine national reconciliation, and solidify its internal unity, it can reaffirm and sustain its role as a key power in Africa.
Speaking during an appearance on ETV's Addis Dialogue program, Nagy delivered a comprehensive analysis of Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea, geopolitical pressures, and Egypt's diplomatic strategy.
He noted that as a landlocked nation, Ethiopia currently relies almost exclusively on the Port of Djibouti for over 90 percent of its foreign trade. Consequently, he highlighted the urgent necessity for Ethiopia to obtain additional sea access and diversify its trade routes.
Ethiopia has explicitly communicated its goal to pursue sea access grounded in international legal frameworks through peaceful means, negotiations, mutual agreements, or long-term lease arrangements. For a country boasting a population of over 120 million, securing more than one maritime outlet is critical not only for international commerce but also for regional security and economic integration.
Cairo, alongside Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia, is seeking to form a new alignment to block Ethiopia from gaining access to the Red Sea and securing a coastline, despite having no shared long-term objectives. Nagy explained that Egypt is exploiting its disputes with Ethiopia by coordinating with the governments in Asmara and Khartoum to exert pressure. He emphasized that no genuine consensus exists among these nations, as their alignment is driven solely by their individual grievances against Ethiopia, which Egypt is attempting to leverage for its own geopolitical advantage.
Characterizing Egypt's stance as pure hypocrisy, Nagy observed that Cairo argues only coastal states have rights over the Red Sea, even though Ethiopia lies in close geographical proximity to it. Furthermore, while Ethiopia supplies more than 86 percent of the Nile's waters, Cairo contributes nothing to the river yet ignores Ethiopia's role as the source. Egypt fails to add a single drop of water to the river, rendering its strategy to safeguard its own water interests deeply contradictory.
Pointing to internal political challenges as a primary factor preventing Ethiopia from reaching its full potential as an African giant, Nagy noted that the recent national dialogue generated constructive recommendations. He stressed that Ethiopia must build a profound national consensus to establish itself as a leading power on the continent.
Comparing Ethiopia to a large house with many rooms, Nagy emphasized that its citizens share a joint responsibility to safeguard and strengthen their shared home. Internal challenges facing the nation must be resolved through dialogue, peace, and national consensus, calling on all Ethiopians to work together to lead the country toward a higher level of prosperity.
